It is important to acknowledge that the people of Afghanistan are the primary casualties of the conflict. What does the rising insurgent violence in Afghanistan mean for Pakistan, especially if the Taliban were to oust the Ghani government in Kabul? In the end, for the Pakistani military, it is not a question of whether they wield enough influence over the Taliban, but of how willing Pakistan’s generals are to use it. Moreover, the head of the ISI-backed Haqqani network, Sirajuddin Haqqani, was appointed to be one of the two deputy leaders of the Taliban in 2015, a personnel move that has further enhanced the agency’s sway over the Taliban. They also reportedly own lucrative real estate holdings and have significant business interests in the Pakistani cities of Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta. For example, members of the Taliban’s leadership council (shura) safely reside in Pakistan (including in Quetta in Balochistan Province).The Taliban can freely move men and materiel into Afghanistan, use Pakistani hospitals to treat their wounded fighters, and communicate with their operational commanders in Afghanistan in some instances, they have even used Pakistani passports to travel abroad. Pakistan’s military, particularly the ISI, retains considerable leverage over the Taliban despite the militant group’s significant territorial gains in Afghanistan. How much influence does Pakistani wield over the Taliban these days? While the Taliban has other reasons not to compromise with Kabul (including the group’s military successes), the physical sanctuary and diplomatic support from Pakistan reinforces the Taliban’s inclination to press ahead. Since then, the ISI has been the militant group’s principal external patron, reportedly providing it with financial resources, training, weapons, logistical support, and (above all) a safe haven in Pakistani territory that has been crucial to the Taliban’s ability to wage an effective insurgency against the Afghan state and international forces. Its premiere intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was instrumental in the creation of the group in the 1990s during the Afghan civil war following the Soviet withdrawal.
Pakistan’s current military-backed leader, Prime Minister Imran Khan (aptly nicknamed Taliban Khan), recently made the outlandish claim that the Taliban are “not a military outfit” but rather “normal civilians.” He asserted without evidence that most Afghan refugees in the country sympathize with the Taliban, claiming that this makes it difficult for Pakistani authorities to act against the group.īut it is no secret that the Pakistani military has long-standing ties to the Afghan Taliban. Virtually no one buys Pakistani denials about the country’s links to the Taliban. What role, if any, has Pakistan played in the Taliban’s latest insurgency? security umbrella that they believe New Delhi was using to expand its influence in Afghanistan at Islamabad’s expense. exit from Afghanistan has a silver lining for them: it removes the U.S. Moreover, senior Pakistani military officers-and, not coincidently, the Taliban-consider Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (and his government) ineffective and illegitimate at best, and an American stooge at worst. The generals in Rawalpindi believe the directorate is hostile to their country and that it works closely with their archenemy India to destabilize Pakistan by, for instance, supporting Pashtun and Baloch nationalists in Pakistan who are demanding political rights and regional autonomy.Īqil Shah is a visiting scholar in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They would especially like to see the Taliban gain hold of the Afghan security apparatus, including the country’s leading national intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security. Pakistani military leaders, the country’s de facto rulers, would have likely preferred a peaceful end to the conflict in Afghanistan, provided that their Taliban proxies held decisive influence in any future Afghan government. But the ensuing fallout could complicate matters. This may appear to be a welcome development for the Taliban’s backers in neighboring Pakistan. forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban has made rapid advances across stretches of the country, seizing many provincial capitals from the embattled Afghan government in Kabul.
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